How an unexpected variable can impact test results
Experiment ID: #3331
The Heritage Foundation
Experiment Summary
Timeframe: 03/16/2018 - 03/26/2018
For The Heritage Foundation, we wanted to test out identifying and providing value proposition around the individual membership levels. As part of the March membership campaign, we were sending existing members an email with a link to the donation page. When people selected a link from their email, they would then be split between the control and treatment page.
Research Question
Will identifying membership levels in the giving around have a significant impact on donor conversion?
Design
C: Original
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[date] => 2022-10-18 17:56:03
[modified] => 2022-10-18 17:56:03
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) ) )
Results
| Treatment Name | Conv. Rate | Relative Difference | Confidence | Average Gift | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C: | Original | 36.8% | $0.00 | ||
| T1: | Membership Labels | 31.1% | -15.7% | 99.0% | $0.00 |
This experiment has a required sample size of 514 in order to be valid. Since the experiment had a total sample size of 1,769, and the level of confidence is above 95% the experiment results are valid.
Flux Metrics Affected
The Flux Metrics analyze the three primary metrics that affect revenue (traffic, conversion rate, and average gift). This experiment produced the following results:
0% increase in traffic
× 15.7% decrease in conversion rate
× 0% increase in average gift
Key Learnings
The membership level identification did seem to have a negative impact on conversion but this was due to an unanticipated variable entering the test. Specifically, we included their highest previous gift amount in the URL which would then modify the gift array of the treatment. This caused the dollar amounts to be different from their associated membership levels and also served to reduce the overall average gift of the campaign.
We are going to try running this experiment again but split the traffic at the email level so that we can control the gift array modifications between the two pages.